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国内方管价格先跌后涨引发贸易商抄底

发布时间:2019-04-27人气:28

国内方管价格先跌后涨,上旬小幅下跌,中下旬出现较明显上涨,累计较上周末上涨20元/吨。受进口矿大幅反弹影响,本月国内矿山也有所跟涨,加之唐山地区一些检修减产高炉在中下旬略有恢复,适当增加方管采购,国产矿成交情况有所好转。在地方矿山供货意愿不强的情况下,预计下月方管价格相对稳定。近期由于国际方管和煤炭价格持续下跌引发贸易商抄底,再加上澳洲矿商加大出货力度,推动干散货市场运价持续大幅反弹。但行业基本供需形势未变,国内需求依旧疲软,且短期将面临淡季需求回落,再加上现存运力消化仍需时日,预计目前运价大幅反弹势头难以持续。

Domestic tube prices first fell and then rose, slightly fell in the first ten days, and increased significantly in the second and second half of the year, with a cumulative increase of 20 yuan/ton over last weekend. Affected by the sharp rebound in imported mines, domestic mines have also increased this month. In addition, some blast furnaces in Tangshan area have recovered slightly in the middle and late stages of maintenance and production reduction. With the appropriate increase in square pipe purchasing, the turnover of domestic mines has improved. In the case of weak supply willingness of local mines, it is expected that the price of square tube will be relatively stable next month. Recently, due to the continuous decline in international management and coal prices, traders have been reading the bottom, and Australian miners have increased their shipments, which has pushed the dry bulk market prices to rebound substantially. However, the basic supply and demand situation of the industry remains unchanged, domestic demand remains weak, and short-term demand will face a downturn in the off-season, coupled with the existing capacity digestion still takes time, it is expected that the current sharp rebound in freight rates will be unsustainable.

建筑钢材厂家本月上旬价格普遍大幅下调,中下旬随着钢价企稳,对出厂价格进行调整的不多,无缝方管部分钢厂出厂价格还出现小幅上调。其中以旬定价的沙钢、永钢等钢厂在6月上旬大幅下调出厂价格200-260元/吨之后,中下旬价格均保持平稳,河北钢铁6月份结算价格则在指导价格基础上大幅下调160-280元/吨。经过本月钢厂价格的滞后下调之后,各区域主导钢厂出厂价格与P110石油套管市场价格倒挂的幅度已经不大,后期钢厂出厂价格继续下调的压力将有所减轻。但值的一提的是,随着资金链的持续紧张,本月江西萍特钢铁出现因资金链断裂而停产的现象,折射出当前中小钢企的生存状况已相当艰难,后期不排除部分钢厂为回笼资金而出台极端价格政策的情况。当前国内方管产量继续保持在高位,对原料刚性需求仍存。不过在钢厂亏损以及国家环保治理力度加大的情况下,预计5月份国内方管产量将有所下降,加之目前钢厂采购原料普遍谨慎,预计7月份方管、焦炭等原料市场仍将以盘整走势为主。

In the early part of this month, the prices of construction steel factories generally fell sharply. With the stabilization of steel prices in the middle and late part of this month, the ex-factory prices of some seamless square pipe factories have not been adjusted much, and the ex-factory prices of some seamless square pipe factories have also increased slightly. Among them, Shagang and Yonggang steelmakers, which were priced in 10 days, cut their ex-factory prices by 200-260 yuan/ton in early June. After that, their prices remained stable in Mid-and late-June. Hebei Iron and Steel's settlement price in June was significantly reduced by 160-280 yuan/ton on the basis of the guided prices. After this month's lagging reduction of steel mill prices, the upside-down between the ex-factory prices of leading steel mills in various regions and the market prices of P110 oil casing pipe is not large enough, and the pressure of further reduction of ex-factory prices will be eased in the later period. However, it is worth mentioning that with the continuous tension of the capital chain, Pingte Iron and Steel Co. of Jiangxi Province stopped production this month because of the break of the capital chain, reflecting that the current living conditions of small and medium-sized steel enterprises have been quite difficult. Later, it is not excluded that some steel mills issued extreme price policies to withdraw funds. At present, the domestic production of square tubes remains at a high level, and there is still a demand for rigid raw materials. However, with the loss of steel mills and the increasing efforts of national environmental protection management, it is expected that the domestic production of square tubes will decline in May. In addition to the current prudence of steel mills in purchasing raw materials, it is expected that the market of square tubes, coke and other raw materials will continue to be dominated by consolidation in July. 

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